As world leaders gather in Brazil for COP30, a sense of déjà vu hangs heavy in the air. A decade ago, a throng of dignitaries posed before the banner “COP21 Paris,” beaming with the optimism born of global unity against climate change. But this year’s gathering looks drastically different: Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi are notably absent, alongside approximately 160 other heads of state. And perhaps most tellingly, Donald Trump is a glaring omission, having completely withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement, leaving many questioning the summit’s relevance in this new political landscape.
The absence of these key players speaks volumes about the shifting priorities on the global stage. While COP summits were once envisioned as platforms for multilateral diplomacy and climate action commitments, they now find themselves caught in a tug-of-war between competing national interests.
Christiana Figueres, who led the UN’s climate process during the landmark Paris Agreement negotiations, bluntly stated last year that the COP process was “not fit for purpose.” Joss Garman, founder of the think tank Loom and a former climate activist, echoes this sentiment: “The golden era for multilateral diplomacy is over. Climate politics is now more than ever about who captures and controls the economic benefits of new energy industries.”
This shift has been driven in part by President Trump’s aggressive pursuit of fossil fuel dominance, a strategy he champions as making America the world’s leading energy superpower. He has actively dismantled clean energy initiatives, rolled back environmental regulations, and aggressively lobbied other countries to buy American oil and gas. In stark contrast to this “energy first” approach, China is forging its own path, leveraging its massive manufacturing capacity to become a global leader in renewable energy technology.
The irony isn’t lost on experts: China now holds the upper hand in solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and advanced batteries—all produced at incredibly low prices. The result? European nations are grappling with the dilemma of whether to open their markets and risk collapsing domestic industries or slam shut doors and potentially jeopardize green energy targets.
This competition between traditional fossil fuel interests and rapidly emerging clean energy giants isn’t just about technology; it represents a fundamental struggle for economic and geopolitical power.
With such seismic shifts in global dynamics, the question arises: what is left for COP30 to achieve? While some argue that annual summits have become redundant, others believe these gatherings remain vital as forums to hold countries accountable for their commitments and signal continued political support for climate action.
Perhaps a more significant shift lies ahead: COPs may evolve into smaller, focused meetings addressing specific challenges, such as financing green infrastructure or dismantling trade barriers in clean energy technologies. This would be a strategic refocusing—moving away from broad pledges and towards tangible action on the ground, driven by bilateral agreements and private investment rather than solely international agreements.
The truth is that COP30 will reveal more about who stands behind which side of this emerging global paradigm: those pursuing fossil fuel hegemony or embracing China’s clean energy revolution. This shift in focus may well shape not only the future of climate action, but also the broader geopolitical landscape for decades to come.
