A cancer diagnosis is a life-altering event, known to trigger emotional distress and force a reassessment of priorities. However, new research suggests it also correlates with a surprising outcome: a statistically significant rise in criminal convictions in the years following diagnosis. The study, conducted by economists using extensive Danish administrative data, reveals that individuals diagnosed with cancer are 14% more likely to be convicted of a crime compared to their pre-diagnosis baseline.
The “Breaking Bad” Effect: Beyond the Initial Shock
The findings echo the premise of the fictional series Breaking Bad, where a cancer-stricken chemistry teacher turns to criminal activity. While most patients don’t escalate to extreme measures, the study shows a real-world increase in convictions, particularly for offenses such as shoplifting and drug possession. This raises critical questions about the underlying causes and potential societal implications.
The research team analyzed data from 368,317 cancer patients diagnosed between 1980 and 2018, linking health records with criminal justice data. Initially, crime rates among newly diagnosed individuals actually decrease, likely due to intensive treatments like chemotherapy and radiation requiring hospitalization. However, two years post-diagnosis, the trend reverses: convictions begin to rise steadily, peaking five years after diagnosis before stabilizing at an elevated level.
Financial Strain and Existential Risk as Contributing Factors
The study dismisses unpaid medical bills as a primary driver, as Denmark has universal health coverage. Instead, it points to economic hardship and altered perceptions of risk as key mechanisms. Cancer diagnosis leads to a 1.5% drop in employment probability, with even employed patients working fewer hours and earning less income. Those most financially affected show the strongest correlation with criminal behavior.
Furthermore, the researchers considered the impact of shortened life expectancy. Patients with lower five-year survival probabilities exhibited stronger links between cancer and criminality, suggesting that the prospect of premature death may diminish the deterrent effect of long-term consequences like imprisonment. Reduced social welfare support in some municipalities also exacerbated the effect, indicating the role of external support systems.
Policy Implications and Unanswered Questions
The study underscores the need for policies that mitigate the economic fallout of serious health shocks. This includes financial assistance, job support, and robust social safety nets to prevent individuals from turning to crime as a means of survival. The findings also suggest a broader systemic issue: the link between cancer and criminality may not be limited to Denmark, potentially signaling a support gap in healthcare systems worldwide.
This research highlights that simply treating the illness isn’t enough; society must address the cascading consequences that cancer has on individuals’ lives, including financial stability, mental well-being, and long-term security.
The study doesn’t explain why violent crimes also increased alongside economic offenses, leaving open the possibility of psychological factors or broader societal pressures contributing to the pattern. Further research is needed to fully understand the complex relationship between cancer, survival probabilities, and criminal behavior.
