This year’s COP30, commencing on November 10th in Belém, Brazil, isn’t anticipated to yield a landmark, new international climate agreement. Instead, the summit’s primary focus will be refining and implementing the details of existing climate accords. The gathering will emphasize making current plans work rather than establishing entirely new ones.
Progress on Pledges and US Withdrawal
Prior to COP30, countries were expected to update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – pledges to reduce emissions – but progress has been slow. By the end of October, only 67 out of 195 parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted updated plans. Notable laggards include the European Union and India. Furthermore, the United States’ climate targets, submitted under President Biden in December 2024, were effectively nullified by Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
Despite these setbacks, China has made a significant commitment to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from peak levels by 2035. While not sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, this pledge, China’s first absolute emissions reduction target, represents a positive step. “It is a real leap forward from what we have seen in the past – we must see it as positive,” says Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, global leader of climate and energy at WWF.
Adapting to a Changing Climate: Key Priorities
Two initiatives expected to be central at COP30 address both slowing climate change and adapting to its inevitable effects.
The Belém Action Mechanism for a Just Transition
Brazil is championing the Belém Action Mechanism for a Just Transition, designed to frame the shift to clean energy as a driver of job creation and economic growth rather than a source of economic hardship. The mechanism intends to support countries in transforming key sectors – such as energy, mining, and agriculture – through pledges, targets, and investments in both cleanup efforts and affected communities.
The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)
With the accelerating impacts of climate change becoming increasingly apparent, the focus at COP30 is partially shifting towards adaptation. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) represents the first attempt to measure and compare vulnerability to climate change across different countries. It will utilize around 100 indicators, including measures of flood risk and food security, to inform funding decisions and prioritize assistance to nations facing the most severe consequences. Laurie Laybourn of the climate think tank Strategic Climate Risks Initiative emphasizes the importance of prioritizing safety measures in light of the changing climate realities.
“COPs 1 to 29 happened in one climate reality and we are now in a new one. The immediate consequence is we have to make people safer,”
However, experts caution against neglecting mitigation efforts in favor of adaptation. “There is a scenario where mitigation is pushed onto the back foot…as less mitigation means more adaptation needs, and we will become stuck in a doom loop.”
Bridging the Finance Gap
Developed nations have repeatedly fallen short of their commitment to provide financial assistance to developing countries to support both climate mitigation and adaptation. Brazil hopes to reignite progress on this front with the Baku to Belém Roadmap, aiming to scale up global climate finance to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.
Developing countries are pushing for grant funding from wealthier nations whose historical emissions are disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations. Wealthier nations are exploring various funding mechanisms, including private investment, debt swaps, development bank funding, and innovative initiatives.
The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF)
A pivotal initiative expected to be officially launched at COP30 is the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF). This facility aims to finance forest protection through private investment, employing a novel self-sustainable model. Brazil and other nations will guarantee an initial investment, allowing the fund to borrow approximately $100 billion from private investors at a low interest rate. These borrowed funds will then be reinvested into sustainable projects with high returns, with profits directly benefiting nations that actively protect their forests.
Brazil has already contributed the first billion dollars, and the World Bank announced its intention to host the fund in late October. If successful, the TFFF could generate approximately $4 billion per year to safeguard the world’s diminishing forests. With limited major announcements anticipated at COP, substantial support for the TFFF will be essential for its success, requiring nations to commit tens of billions in combined investment.
“The TFFF’s launch is likely to be a high point at a moment of troubled international climate negotiations and its success an important signal to others as we head into a severely climate-disrupted future,” says Simon Zadek at the Swiss climate finance consultancy Morphosis.
COP30’s focus on implementation, adaptation, and innovative financing mechanisms represents a shift toward practical steps rather than grand pronouncements, signaling a recognition of the urgent need to manage the already unavoidable impacts of climate change while continuing to mitigate future emissions.
