The summer so far is historic.
It is also exhausting.
We broke records from the notorious year of 1976, then broke the records for those records. Lingwood, Norfolk saw 37.7°C. Six days topped 35°C. That never happened before in three separate months—May, June, and July—until this year. By mid-July, we had logged more days over 30°C than the entire infamous summer of 1971 combined.
“The behaviour of our chaotic atmosphere becomes harder to predict the further you look.”
That quote is basically the whole problem with the next two months.
You want a definitive answer for late July and August? There isn’t one. Not yet. The signals are mixed. Computer models argue with each other.
Still, the broad trend is clear: it’s likely to stay hotter than usual, especially if you are south of the border in England and Wales. Heatwaves aren’t out of the question. They’re possible. Maybe probable.
But it won’t just be sun.
Will UK weather get changeable in August 2024?
The DTN forecast—the data backbone for the BBC—shows low pressure building.
This means rain.
Especially up north. Scotland and Northern Ireland should feel it first. More wet spells over the coming couple of weeks.
Here’s the twist.
The Azores High is hanging around.
This massive dome of high pressure in the North Atlantic acts like a wall. It blocks storm systems from reaching us easily. When it sits close, the UK stays dry. The forecast says it’s likely to loom nearby. So, while the north might get drenched, the south? Drier. Not bone dry, mind you—some southern places haven’t seen a measurable drop of rain in four weeks, remember? But not quite as dry as a desert.
Temperatures, though. Those stubborn high numbers are likely to persist.
Expect above-average warmth. Hot spells could stick around into early August. The Met Office agrees. Their long-range outlook says the influence of that high-pressure block might “wane somewhat” by the end of July.
Waning influence equals movement.
Movement means showers. Thunderstorms.
Rain will probably start in the north and slowly creep southwards. It won’t be a wall-to-wall washout. It will be sporadic. Changeable. One moment sun, next moment a cloudburst.
Which parts of the UK will stay hottest?
England and Wales.
Again and again.
While Scotland faces that wetter, cooler pattern, the southern tier is set for continued warmth. August will start changeable—don’t trust your calendar for daily accuracy—but the baseline temperature is still above seasonal norms.
Why is the forecast so vague?
Because chaos is inherent in the weather.
Long-range forecasting isn’t about knowing if it’ll rain on August 14th. It’s about trends. And right now, those trends are blurry. Forecasters are squinting at data that refuses to form a straight line.
“Long-range forecasting is fraught with uncertainty.”
That’s an understatement.
We’ve already lived through three major heatwaves in a single season. The vegetation is tinder-dry. Wildfires are burning. Millions are under hosepipe bans. The ground is parched.
If you are planning outdoor events, beach trips, or just trying to stay cool without spending a fortune on water bills, keep checking the app. The BBC Weather app updates constantly. Trends shift. A day can change.
Will we see more record-breaking days?
Maybe.
We already shattered the 1976 benchmarks. We hit 35°C+ in May. In June. In July. The climate doesn’t pause for history lessons. It just keeps climbing.
August might bring rain. It might bring thunder.
Or it might bring another ten days of sun.
The models say either could happen.
